The Reality of Global Human Capital Demand’s Growth in 2020

By Jessica Miller-Merrell  

As it stands, organizations must begin engaging and establishing relationships with quality candidates now regardless of their location geographically especially when you read how the BLS estimates that the average employee tenure is 4.6 years in 2012 with a single company. Depending on where you have engaged employees within their lifespan of retention within an organization, it is imperative that you begin establishing an employment branding relationship with targeted talent pools and candidates communities.

When looking at the global competition for talent over the next 6-10 years, I was most surprised by some talent surpluses and shortages you might not have considered when building your global recruitment and even employment branding strategy.

·      Canada’s labor surplus of between 700,000 and 1.1 million people in 2020 will become a deficit of up to 2.3 million by 2030. 

·      China’s surplus of 55.2 million to 75.3 million workers in 2020 could reverse sharply, turning into a shortage of up to 24.5 million people by 2030. 

·      Germany will see a shortage of up to 2.4 million workers by 2020 and 10 million by 2030

The data you see above is from the UN’s Divisional Labor Database. Graphically represented below, it definitely provides food for thought as you leadership team discusses human capital topics like business expansion, the virtual workforce and how future competition for labor geographically will increase between now and 2020 or 2030.

Most companies are opting out of expanding to a remote workforce because they have decent enough talent pools available where they’re geographically located, but as you can tell these numbers are going to start shifting in the next five to ten years. It’s important to pay attention to the trends in the employment industry and begin being proactive with the results of these studies. Although these studies don’t show a shortage for US workers, it does show that the workforce will be cut in half.

The global risk for these shortages is estimated to be 10 trillion dollars. While most companies can’t offer long-term solutions right away it’s important to start doing a few things to prepare for them what might ultimately be a downfall in their industry if they’re not prepared for a loss of workers in the next five to ten years.

·      Work on changing policies that allow for telecommuting. Right now there isn’t much of a need (especially in the US) for telecommuting except for the added workplace perk. Start the conversation about working towards a virtual workplace division. There are several perks implementing a system – one of them is being ready for a mass shortage of workers.

·      Start developing your employer brand. If you haven’t created a strong employer brand (and by strong I’m talking about the Southwest Airlines of the world) it’s important to put a greater focus on employer branding. Shortages aside, this will help you recruit and attract better talent amongst several other benefits.

·      Build a pipeline of eligible workers. Using a talent community, like TalentCircles, companies will be able to have their own reserve of employees who are already invested into their brand and want to work for the company. Use these communities to your advantage when your search has come up empty for candidates.

It’s going to happen. There will be a mass shortage of workers in the coming years and being prepared for it will be smart. I don’t suggest create a “end of the world” strategy, but be smart about how you’re marketing and attracting candidates. Don’t think of it as one job at a time, but more of a continuous relationship. Learn more about global labor supply by viewing the infographic below or clicking this link.

 

Jessica Miller-Merrell, SPHR is a workplace and technology strategist specializing in social media. She’s is the Chief Blogger & Founder of Blogging4Jobs. You can follow her on Twitter @jmillermerrell.